The Super El Niño is expected to bring hotter temperatures, less rainfall, drier soils and a higher risk of drought, water shortages and forest fires. For Bhutan, it also raises another concern. Authorities say the warmer conditions could accelerate glacier melt, increasing the risk of a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood from Thorthormi Lake in Lunana.
Bhutan’s average temperature has been rising steadily, increasing by about 0.2 degrees Celsius each year since 2018. The warmer climate has already accelerated glacier melt.
Now, scientists say a Super El Niño is developing, with sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean expected to rise more than two degrees Celsius above normal. This warming is likely to trigger heatwaves and could make 2027 another record-hot year.
For Bhutan, the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology says the higher temperatures could speed up glacier melt further and increase the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods.
Director General of NCHM, Karma Dupchu said, “Our main concern is the rise in temperatures. Temperatures have increased compared to previous years. While the southern region is naturally warmer, Bhutan’s snow-capped mountains and glaciers make this trend riskier.”
Among Bhutan’s glacial lakes, Thorthormi Lake poses the greatest threat. Located at the headwaters of the Phochhu, it is considered the country’s most hazardous glacial lake for its rapid growth that is held back by a fragile, ice-cored moraine dam. Efforts to manually lower the water levels have been undertaken and the lake remains under constant monitoring.
Home Minister Tshering said, “Punakha Dzong is at risk because of the Thorthormi Lake upstream of the Phochhu. Even now, rising water levels from glacier melt remain a concern. If a GLOF occurs, it will be very dangerous for Punakha Dzong.”
However, the danger extends far beyond Punakha Dzong.
Research shows that a major outburst of Thorthormi lake could affect more than 1,100 buildings, around 72 kilometres of roads and over four square kilometres of farmland along the Phochhu and Punatsangchhu river basins.
Communities in Lunana and Punakha town are among the areas considered highly vulnerable.
To reduce the risk, the NCHM has installed 10 monitoring stations and 18 warning sirens along the Phochhu. The centre says once the system detects an outburst, communities downstream would have about six hours to evacuate.
According to the Home Minister, preparations are underway in case of a GLOF triggered by the severe weather phenomenon.
The Punakha district administration said they will review evacuation plans for communities along the river to ensure people can move to safety quickly if a warning is issued.
Home Minister Tshering will also meet with the district officials to review the emergency response plans for Punakha dzong. The discussion will include evacuation procedures and other details, such as transportation and relocation of the sacred relics.
Deki Lhazom
Edited by Sangay Chezom
