As El Niño is expected to intensify this month, the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology forecasts a drier-than-normal start to October across much of Bhutan. Temperatures, however, are likely to remain close to normal. The centre gives more than a 90 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño developing between October and January next year.
The strengthening El Niño is likely to bring a relatively dry start to October in Bhutan. According to NCHM’s latest four-week outlook, from the 2nd to the 22nd, most parts of Bhutan are likely to receive less rainfall than usual.
Rainfall could return closer to normal from the 23rd to the 29th, with some areas possibly receiving above-normal rainfall.
Temperatures, meanwhile, are expected to remain generally near normal. During the first three weeks of October, southern Bhutan could see warmer daytime conditions, while some areas in the north and west may experience cooler conditions.
NCHM says El Niño generally favours warmer and drier conditions across much of South Asia, although its effects can vary from place to place.
Another climate factor, the Indian Ocean Dipole, remains neutral and is expected to stay neutral through the post-monsoon season.
NCHM says it will continue monitoring the changing conditions and issue regular forecasts and advisories.
Namgay Wangdi
